Climate change in Global Scenario
Climate change could affect the lists of best visiting places for your holidays which may have either positive or negative impacts. In North German coastal region, climate change had negative impact as a choice of vacation destination of tourist. International visitors are less willing to travel there so local and regional tourism stakeholders should apply appropriate steps to reduce the adverse impacts (Braun, et al., 1999).
Climate change had increased stresses on environmental systems of different tourist destinations. Rise in sea level had adverse impacts on popular tourist destination of small island states such as Maldives. Increasing risk of illness in different tourist destinations is discouraging tourism. Increase in temperature causes discomfort in resorts of the Eastern Mediterranean. Decrease in cloud cover in Australia will increase exposure to the sun’s harmful rays. Emergence of malaria in Spain will affect tourism in long run. Less snowfall may cause shorter skiing seasons in winter season in Alps. Sunshine, heat and warmer climate will enhance benefit of holiday destinations in UK by attracting international, national and local visitors (Viner & Agnew, 1999).
Up to 2030, there would be negative effects of higher temperatures in the Mediterranean region, France, Italy and Austria but there will be positive impacts in Switzerland. Climate change causes more problems and burden to the poorer countries who are taking tourism as a main driver of development. Also, Canada, New Zealand and USA will be benefited from climate change (Ehmer & Heymann, 2008).
Moore (2011) had assessed the climate change and its impact on tourism from economic perspectives in Barbados. Climate change policies may reduce tourism mobility in few areas of the country. Recent policies of United Kingdom has increased price of flights to Barbados which may affect tourism in Barbados.
Journal of Tourism and Hospitality
Simpson et al. (2011) observed that Caribbean destinations may be too hot for tourists during some seasons. During summer, there will be intolerable heat in few locations. Increase in temperature will cause competition of tourism in Mediterranean and Caribbean region. Climate change increases operation costs of tourism operators in insurance, heating costs, cooling costs, pest management and water supply for drinking and irrigation. Annual losses from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding have increased. Rise in sea level of 1 meter will increase the risk of inundation in 266 out of 906 tourism resorts and 26 out of 73 airports in Caribbean region.
Scott (2012) observed that climate change shifts travel patterns, increases tourism cost in temperate regions and decreases tourism costs in warmer region. Climate change had also shifted tourism from Northern part of Europe to Mediterranean and the Caribbean, North America to the Caribbean. Increase in income from tourism and reduction of carbon footprint is occurring due to increase in length of stay.
Fall foliage season is an important time for sightseeing activity in the world. Climate change had caused delay of timing of fall foliage vacation season. Increase in 1°C will cause delayed beginning by 5.3 days, delayed best date by 3.5 days and the end of fall foliage vacation by 3.7 days. Start of fall foliage season was delayed in 1990s, best date of fall foliage vacation was delayed in early 2000s and 1990s and end of fall foliage vacation season was delayed in early 2000s. It has adversely affected tourists and the tourism industry by changing the timing of vacation trips and their promotion (Ge, et al., 2013).
There is need of information about impact of climate change on tourism. It is necessary to include climate change in tertiary education syllabus of different subjects such as tourism, resource management engineering and architecture. Mapping of all tourism infrastructure and health hazards of different locations need to be carried out for implementing nation-wide risk management strategy for tourism and climate change (Becken, 2005).
Warmer countries will have more disadvantages while countries of higher latitudes have more advantages in tourism from climate change. Rise of sea level will increase loss of land by 0.839% in South East Asia, 0.396% in South Asia and 0.167% in rest of the World. Rise in sea level by 25 cm till 2050 will cause loss of GDP by 0.1% in South East Asia, 0.0004% in Canada and gain in GDP of Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia (Bigano, et al., 2008).
Ebi et al (2007) observed that the main climate-related risks in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region were expansion of vector-borne diseases, expansion of diarrheal diseases and increase in rainfall events leading to ﬂoods, landslides, death and injuries. Glacial lake outburst flood may cause substantial destruction and loss of life while rapid snow melt reduces freshwater in upland regions and downstream countries.
Climate Change and its Impact on Global Tourism
There are milder winters and longer growing seasons of crops and vegetation in mountain regions which may lead to adverse impact on public health of local people in the area.
The study concluded that tourism agencies need to enhance their skill and capacity to address climate change. Also, climate change and tourism sector requires a strong policy framework led by a government agency to convert private ownership into public ownership and global flow of resource into local flow of resource (Becken & Clapcott, 2011).
Tourism is a resilient sector as there is capacity to attract new ideas and avoid the traditional practices. Effect of climate change on tourism was felt differently by different people. Participants of focus group discussion were not sure about the winners and losers from climate change. Climate change enhances product innovation and tourism rearrangements in tourism sector. Rapid melting of glacier and permafrost in alpine region will have negative impact on tourism sector associated with climate change phenomena. Local tourism stakeholders had a great role in implementing climate change adaptation measures for adapting toward adverse changing scenario (Wyss, et al., 2014).
Climate change and its impact on global economy is negligible in 2010 while climate change may alters GDP by -0.3% to +0.5% till 2050 and may lead to negligible global loss. The main losers will be Western Europe, energy exporting countries, Caribbean and The Mediterranean. Caribbean will be too hot and less pleasant for tourist. Tropical nations will be less popular due to global warming and unpleasant weather. Energy exporting countries will lose a lot due to fall in energy demand. There will be positive impact of climate change in tourism in Eastern Europe, North America, Japan, Australasia and Russia while there will be neutral effects on China and India (Berrittella, et al., 2006).
Scott et al (2007) projected that there will be increase in annual visitation between 6 t to 10 percent in the 2020s and it will increase by 10 percent to 36 percent in the 2050s. Environmental change scenarios shows minimal impact on visitation rate of tourists from 2020s to 2050s but there will be negative impact on visitation rate of tourist for the 2080s scenarios by increase in temperature. More than 19% respondents would not visit the park and 37% would less often visit the park due to increase in temperature. Climate-visitation model shows that all the climate change scenarios would increase annual visitation to Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) (Alberta, Canada).
About 76% of the Danish people, 72.52% of Dutch people, 70.13% of Swedish people, 67.09% of Finnish people and 34.66% of Portuguese people visit other places in a year. It may be due to the financial status of these citizens. The frequency of travel of Finnish citizen is most (1.34) while that of Portuguese citizen is the least (0.40).
Journals of Tourism and Hospitality
Finnish citizen visit three times more than Portuguese in any year due to difference in gross domestic product, financial constraints, labour condition and family matter. If the community of residence is large, people will visit to any destination. Coastal people like domestic visit than visit to abroad. Construction of national airport has a positive impact on domestic tourism and negative impact on international tourism while construction of international airports has a negative impact on domestic tourism and a positive impact on international tourism. High rate of hotel prices in the place of residence does not affect domestic visit but increases international visit. The climate index has great role in tourism as better climate in the place of residence increases domestic visit and decreases international visit. Visit of people to a new place will change in relation to climate. Zero climate indexes causes 18% chances of domestic visit and 45% chances of international visit. Climate index value of 3 indicates 25% chances in both types of visit (domestic and international). Climate of a place is a strong indicator for selecting holiday destination of people. They showed that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of traveling domestically and a lower probability of traveling abroad (Eugenio-Martin & Campos-Soria, 2010).
Climate change had increased risk of individual ski operations in climatically and geographically disadvantaged regions. Ski tourism resorts at higher elevation having access to large urban markets are least affected by climate change. Climate change will cause historic contraction and consolidation of ski industry. But those industries which can adapt from climate change and which can develop new technologies would get benefits from stable tourism revenue. Climate change is the main factor which can affect ski industry (Dawson & Scott, 2013).